By Joyce Ekeh
President Bola Tinubu may secure less than 10 per cent of the votes in Northern Nigeria in the 2027 presidential election if the poll is free, fair and credible, the Convener of the League of Northern Democrats and a key promoter of the All-Democratic Alliance (ADA), Dr Umar Ardo, has predicted.
Ardo made the disclosure in an interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State.
He attributed his prediction to what he described as growing dissatisfaction with the Federal Government’s handling of insecurity, the economy, poverty and the rising cost of living in the region.
According to him, the outcome of the 2027 election in the North will be determined largely by how voters assess the Tinubu administration against their experiences since the President assumed office in May 2023.
Ardo particularly cited the persistent insecurity across parts of Northern Nigeria, saying insurgency, banditry and other security challenges had continued to disrupt communities and economic activities.
He said farmers, traders and other citizens could not be expected to support a government they believed had failed to adequately protect their lives and livelihoods.
“You can solve the issue of insecurity and insurgency in one year,” Ardo said, insisting that tackling the problem required the right strategy and sufficient political will from the Federal Government.
He said insecurity had consequences beyond the loss of lives and property, noting that fear and displacement had also affected farming, trade and other sources of livelihood.
Turning to the economy, Ardo criticised some of the policies of the Tinubu administration, particularly the removal of fuel subsidy, questioning whether ordinary Nigerians had seen sufficient benefits from the policy.
“Subsidy removal, is it a benefit?” he asked.
He acknowledged that some workers had received salary increases but argued that the gains had been largely eroded by inflation and the rising cost of goods and services.
“The purchasing power has been depreciated,” he said.
Ardo further argued that the economic reforms had placed a heavier burden on poor and vulnerable Nigerians, particularly in the North, where he said a large population was already struggling with poverty.
“The economic reform has pushed people from the state of poverty to destitution,” he said.
The political leader also raised concerns over the distribution of political appointments in the Tinubu administration, saying the composition of government could influence perceptions about regional representation and inclusion.
He, however, maintained that the question of political representation should be considered alongside the broader issues of governance and the actual impact of government policies on citizens.
Ardo cautioned against assuming that the voting pattern recorded in Northern Nigeria during the 2023 presidential election would automatically be replicated in 2027.
He said voters were capable of changing their political preferences based on prevailing circumstances, adding that insecurity, economic hardship and the rising cost of living would be among the issues shaping their decisions at the polls.
Against this backdrop, Ardo said Tinubu’s support in the North could be dramatically lower in 2027 if Nigerians were allowed to freely express their preferences.
“If a free, fair and credible election is conducted in Nigeria, Tinubu can’t get 10 percent of the Northern part,” he said.
The North remains a critical battleground in Nigeria’s presidential elections, given its substantial voting population. The ability of the ruling party and opposition political forces to secure and consolidate support across the region is therefore expected to play a major role in determining the outcome of the 2027 presidential contest.
